Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatzius
Jan Hatziusis the chief economist of investment bank Goldman Sachs. Notable for his bearish forecasts prior to the Financial crisis of 2007–2008, he is a two-time winner of the Lawrence R. Klein Award for the most accurate US economic forecast over the prior four years. He has also won a number of other forecasting awards, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Institutional Investor annual forecaster rankings...
cannot clear consumer continue debt disposable form grow households income lengthy maybe percent period save spending subdued sure violent
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
believe capital fact funds holding plausible spending
It's not plausible that capital spending has been weakened by the fact that multinationals are holding their funds abroad. I just don't believe that story.
believe bubble consumer dry equity gains home households housing large likely market recent share spending supplement ultimately
We do believe that the U.S. housing market is a bubble in the sense that its contribution to consumer spending is unsustainable. Households have used a large share of the recent home equity gains to supplement their spending. When these gains dry up, as they ultimately must, spending is likely to weaken substantially.
finances fiscal household monetary namely plausible remain sector spending stimulus whose
There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,
adjustment beginning consumer debt economy growth household means next normal rate rather savings spending temporary
Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.
december figures fourth friday gains given income likelihood low quarter reported strong
Income figures ... were surprisingly low for December given the strong gains reported for the fourth quarter on Friday and the likelihood that bonuses would have boosted December gains.
below beyond economic growth half hurdle percent second seems slow strong trend
Economic growth will be pretty strong in the first half and then slow to below trend in the second half. It seems to me that the hurdle for going beyond 5 percent is still pretty high.
change close either fed interest
nothing suggests that the Fed is close to a change in interest rates, in either direction.
certainly consumer numbers
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal.
data gone
I've gone from being a data maven to a weatherman, ... Just to think that before today, I didn't know what an 'eye-wall replacement cycle' was.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind. It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
couple economic growth moderate oil percentage points required shock sort takes
It's a moderate economic headwind, ... It takes a couple of percentage points off of the GDP growth rate, but it's not the sort of oil shock that would be required for a much more significant slowdown.
clear determined message quite
The message is pretty clear here: they are quite determined to keep going.
committing driving increases market rate rise roof saying stock themselves third trying
They want to see how these first two rate increases go first. They are trying to straddle between not committing themselves to a third rate rise and not driving the stock market through the roof by saying they're done.