James Awad
James Awad
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Price-to-earnings ratios are high by historic standards, but the bulls would say that, given low interest rates, they're not too expensive. I think they're generally not convincingly cheap or expensive -- the key is to find individual stocks that are cheap.
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The vulnerability is in individual stocks rather than in the market, ... Any company that misses its earnings is going to get brutally punished. The market has very low tolerance for companies that miss their earnings, and it goes back to the fact that everybody's paid on performance and it's difficult for people to have a long-term view.
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The momentum will change. Technology stocks are due for a correction, without bringing down the market.
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North Fork Bancorp stock is selling at about 20. We think its fair value would be about 30. But meanwhile, you're getting a 3 percent dividend yield and it's selling at 10 times earnings. Demographically, it's a very attractive area. So, your risk in buying North Fork is that you're a little bit early and the market doesn't care about value stocks for a while. And of course, in a period of rising rates, financial stocks don't do particularly well. But, ... if you buy it and put it away, you'll end up making 50 percent from current levels over a 12 to 18 month period.
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If you are only getting (for example) 1 percent in the money market, why wouldn't you buy stocks instead?
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When all is said and done, third-quarter earnings will probably be good and fourth-quarter forecasts good enough to cool some of the worries about inflationary pressures hurting corporate profits,
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When all is said and done, I think the market will sprint higher toward the end of the year. But it's going to take continued encouraging earnings and economic reports to move it along.
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What's gonna happen here is you're going to see a cat and mouse game between Bush and Iraq for some time. I suspect that a month from now we'll be back to where we were yesterday before the letter came out.
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The stock is cheap, not well followed, and I think it's undervalued, ... The stock currently trades at about $21, and I think it will earn about $2.60 a share for the year.
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The stock is at $24 a share now, down from $50, ... The company is extremely well positioned, the stock could go up 10 points if there is evidence that the economy turns in third quarter.
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The risk is we are staring down the barrel of negative pre-announcements, so the market has the potential to be disappointed short term.
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There's really nothing you can do about it because you need a parking spot.
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The tradeoff and struggle in the market is the power of good earnings and the strength of the economy against the fear of higher interest rates and rising oil prices,
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The trade deficit has always lurked in the background as a potential negative for stocks, but it was fine (in the past) because the dollar was strong.