James Awad
James Awad
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The best time in the stock market is when interest rates are low and earnings are poised to grow.
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The Fed officials are talking very optimistically. Uniformly they were out there, on the tape yesterday and in interviews, saying that they are expecting a second-half recovery and looking for signs of a bottom sometime, very soon in the economy. So, you are going to have to watch the news very carefully going forward. I don't think anybody really knows. But if you listen to the Fed, you have maybe one more rate cut and then an improving economy.
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The tradeoff and struggle in the market is the power of good earnings and the strength of the economy against the fear of higher interest rates and rising oil prices,
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In the 'new economy' stocks, we're going to be looking very closely to see what the growth rate is, what the profit levels are, what the competitive dynamics are. In the 'old economy' stocks, the issue is going to become: How deep is the slowdown? Where does it end? And so people are going to be doing it stock by stock. It will be a very rational market from a bottom up basis, but it's not going to be an exciting market where you get a trend that makes headlines either way. So I think it'll frustrate both the bulls and the bears.
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I think you're locked in a trading range. The good news is, the consensus for now seems to be that if the Fed's done -- if it's not done, it's very close to being done -- so that relieves the interest rate pressures from the market. And you've ended the negative pre-announcement season. You're going into the regular announcement season, and earnings should be pretty good. And that should support the market,
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The driving force for the market over coming weeks is going to be earnings -- what were the first quarter results and what is the outlook. You need strong earnings to overcome the headwinds of higher interest rates and inflation, because those aren't going away.
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It's not going to make or break a bull or a bear market, but it's a negative.
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The bias at this time of year should be up and, if it's not, it will be because of Southeast Asia.
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Stock investors have concluded that the economy was in good shape before Hurricane's Katrina and Rita, and that it has come through the storms in reasonably good shape, with the exception of oil,
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The best news is cresting right now, ... so it very well may be that we had a fabulous run in the market from March 2003 to January 2004, we've sort of marked time since then, and we'll roll over for the rest of the year until we get better visibility on 2005.
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The basic factors that caused the market to go down remain in place, and I think those worries are going to be with us for the next couple of months, ... certainly until we get third-quarter earnings reports, and maybe through the election.
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On balance, the earnings period so far has been very reasonable, even better than expected.
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The vulnerability is in individual stocks rather than in the market, ... Any company that misses its earnings is going to get brutally punished. The market has very low tolerance for companies that miss their earnings, and it goes back to the fact that everybody's paid on performance and it's difficult for people to have a long-term view.
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When all is said and done, third-quarter earnings will probably be good and fourth-quarter forecasts good enough to cool some of the worries about inflationary pressures hurting corporate profits,