Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It's good news that the durable goods orders were stronger than expected, but those are August numbers and probably don't carry that much weight,
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These numbers were highly impacted if not distorted by Hurricane Katrina.
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It's not good news, ... Even though the focus is on the Middle East and oil prices, these numbers clearly are not going to stabilize the markets.
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The numbers across the board were pretty surprising. I would say that improvements in the leading indicators of the economy, like the employment and manufacturing numbers, is very encouraging and indicate that the economy is expanding and not contracting. It also suggests continued expansion into the first quarter.
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As the bull market progressed, analysts became more optimistic about next year's earnings. Now, it's the extent to which companies will hit their numbers for 2004 that will make next week so important for the market.
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Although they were close to expectations and maybe a little bit weaker, the numbers confirm that the economy generally is slowing, ... The report also confirms that the manufacturing sector of the economy is contracting.
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There's fairly widespread anticipation that the economic numbers this week will be solid, though not great, and I think the market is reflecting that.
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These are the really important numbers because they give us a first look at January, and they include leading indicators.
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The durable goods numbers are telling us that businesses are spending money, and that the outlook for the economy is solid. And after last week, the earnings numbers are encouraging. So we're seeing a good bump today.
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When it appears as though the governors of the Federal Reserve believe that the end of the rate increases is near, that's very good news for investors. A lack of ambiguity from the Federal Reserve is always a little bit of a shocker.
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What we're seeing from Lehman is that market conditions improved through the summer, and that conditions are likely to continue improving. That's showing up in the earnings and in the detail of their reports.
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We're moving beyond that -- the market's almost immune to the scandals now.
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We're forever in search of the Holy Grail of investing and that's some formula to give us the answer, ... That's the whole problem. These things work - until you try to use them.
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When you say the stock market is overvalued, you imply that the stock market is going down. But there is a touch of lunacy in every bull market -- stocks can become even more overvalued. A rational investment policy in an irrational world is suicide.