Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
accelerate advertising believe continue expect growth market modestly online percent quarter toughest
We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
continue earnings environment fleeing growth investors likely market percent slower stock
Near-term, in a market environment in which investors are fleeing to quality, its stock could continue to do well. Our analysis, however, suggests that the company's long-term earnings growth is likely to be slower than the 15 percent to 20 percent consensus.
advertising consumer continue continues disposable drivers estimate growth income major market percent three total traffic
There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector: traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U.S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
adding advertising believe cautious continue money online percent quarter remain second stocks therefore toughest until
We would therefore remain cautious about adding new money to online advertising-driven stocks until the first or second quarter, when we should have better visibility. We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter, with only 10 percent year-over-year growth.
aggressive billion calling case earnings imagine per revenue
We can imagine an aggressive case calling for $2.7 billion of revenue by 2005 and $2.34 in earnings per share.
advertising bottom continue environment expect longer months online originally quarter raise second
We expect the challenging environment for online advertising to continue into the second quarter 2001, three-to-six months longer than we had originally expected. Because of this, we are not able to raise our bottom line estimates.
baked continue impact launch modest therefore view weak
We continue to view OXP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
achieve amazon analysis believe book eight estimate fourth holiday million product quarter revenue solid week
Our estimate for fourth quarter product revenue is approximately $1 billion. To achieve our estimate, we believe Amazon has to book about $750 million in the eight week holiday season. Our back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Delight-O-Meter suggests it is off to a solid start.
aol average continues control cost flat hour increase last pays rate several spends user
Every hour that the average user spends online, AOL pays for it directly, yet the average user only pays a flat rate of $21.95 a month. So if usage continues to go up, AOL's cost continues to increase and this is something they've started to control over the last several quarters.
anytime believe continue few industry internet investor respect spoils
As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.
believe current fact future near prediction prices relative stock stocks stronger timing
The timing of this reset relative to the current stock prices is, again, not a prediction of future weakness. In fact we believe that many of the stronger stocks may be near seasonal bottoms.
believe companies customers gain online retailing running sector spend
We believe there could be a shakeout in the B2C (business-to-consumer) online retailing sector as companies that have had to spend aggressively to gain new customers will be running out of money.
challenge combined companies cultural entity global large longer managerial pose
While the combined entity will have a large global footprint, we think cultural and managerial integration of the two companies could pose a challenge longer term.
accurately airline appears believe business compelling continues dependent forecast limited management model ticket visibility
While we still believe the model is compelling long term, the business continues to be heavily dependent on airline ticket sales. As a result, it appears management has limited visibility to accurately forecast the business.