Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
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In this market, you have two choices. Either you sit on the sidelines or you say you want to be in companies that you feel comfortable with.
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There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector: traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U.S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
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We think the Internet is tremendously profound. It will continue to have an effect on the global economy over the next five-to-10 years. But there's no way that it is a large enough opportunity to support the 400 companies that have gone public. And I think if you look back in history at different emerging industries, we've often had this feeling that the PCs for example are going to change the world. All you have to do is buy a PC company and you're safe. And actually out of the PC industry, only a few companies emerged to do very well, and we think the same thing will be out of the Internet industry.
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We contend AOL Time Warner is powerful enough that it won't go gently into the night (unlike Novell, WordPerfect, Lotus, Netscape, et al). We do believe, however, that developments between the two companies over the next year or two will have significant bearing on the long-term direction of the industry.
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We are simply exhausted by the endless postponement of financial gratification - and we think other investors are, too.
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With paid search, advertisers bid against each other for rank positioning on commercial search terms, paying each time a user 'clicks' on their result.
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We believe the comments on PC demand add weight to the view that the PC cycle may have bottomed. However, we believe it is still too early to 'call the bottom' -- especially if emerging weakness in European IT demand dampens prospects for a PC rebound there.
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We still believe that, over the intermediate term, these factors will likely outweigh controversy surrounding Windows XP, so we maintain our 'accumulate' rating.
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Given what these stocks have done, the people who are left behind start looking for other opportunities.
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If the talks proceed well, it is possible the case could be settled by the end of the year.
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Thus, we regard the ruling as an incremental positive for the stock.
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We have received a number of calls on whether a combination of Yahoo and Disney would make sense. We believe an investment would be much more likely. Given that AOL-Time Warner is likely to be a real entity within a few weeks, creating a very strong global integrated media and Internet competitor, we believe other media companies will be looking to create similarly powerful internet strategies.
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Our preliminary conclusion is that, although Microsoft is not out of the woods, it will be slightly more free to compete on its own terms than we expected it would.
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We can imagine an aggressive case calling for $2.7 billion of revenue by 2005 and $2.34 in earnings per share.