Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
companies continue few industry leading months next space
...This consolidation and shakeout in the space will continue for the next few months but longer-term will bode very well for industry leading companies like Amazon.
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Street analysts tend to aim low, especially when they like a stock.
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After re-analyzing Amazon's cash and liquidity, we remain comfortable with it. Amazon needs to stay on track to turn an operating profit in Q4, but as long as several key trends continue to improve, we consider a squeeze very unlikely.
advertising appears believe continue market online remain
The online advertising market appears to be stabilizing, but we believe it will continue to remain challenging for the foreseeable future.
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Given what these stocks have done, the people who are left behind start looking for other opportunities.
case possible proceed settled talks
If the talks proceed well, it is possible the case could be settled by the end of the year.
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We can imagine an aggressive case calling for $2.7 billion of revenue by 2005 and $2.34 in earnings per share.
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At the same time, however, we continue to be discouraged by one basic trend: a steady increase in our loss estimates without a correspondingly large increase in revenue or profitability estimates.
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In this market, you have two choices. Either you sit on the sidelines or you say you want to be in companies that you feel comfortable with.
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The sentiment surrounding the leading companies in the consumer Internet sector appears to be improving as we approach the seasonally strong fall and winter period. We continue to believe that some of the leading consumer advertising and e-commerce stocks -- America Online, Yahoo, and Amazon.com -- will benefit from this.
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After that point, it is likely that the case could be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add at least another six months to the outcome. So the case may not conclude until 2003.
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I could see Amazon and eBay merging. Amazon operates in a huge market, but it's got lower margin revenue. eBay has higher margin revenues, but the secondhand and small-business markets will always be limited relative to the size of the retail market. Combine the two, though, and that could be a very powerful entity.
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However, if the company is successful, we believe the cash burn can start to decline significantly in one to two quarters and can last CMGI through break-even.
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The good B2B stocks are dizzyingly expensive, but we would rather pay up for them than look for cheap stocks of poorer companies.