Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
accelerate advertising believe continue expect growth market modestly online percent quarter toughest
We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
advertising believe bottom continue estimate growth market online until
We continue to believe in the long-term growth of online advertising. Near-term, however, we don't believe the market will bottom until the first quarter. We estimate only single-digit year-over-year market growth in the first quarter.
awkward believe company continue despite earnings expect growing growth investors momentum patient revenue transition upside
We do not expect significant upside to our estimates. As we have said before, we believe the company is going through an awkward transition from a hyper-growth, revenue momentum story to a long-term growth and earnings story. Despite its growing pains, we continue to believe long-term, patient investors will be rewarded.
continue earnings environment fleeing growth investors likely market percent slower stock
Near-term, in a market environment in which investors are fleeing to quality, its stock could continue to do well. Our analysis, however, suggests that the company's long-term earnings growth is likely to be slower than the 15 percent to 20 percent consensus.
advertising consumer continue continues disposable drivers estimate growth income major market percent three total traffic
There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector: traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U.S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
continued growth mark question remains
The big question mark remains the long-term sustainable growth rate, especially with continued deceleration of U.S. business.
advertising commerce critical derived growth line majority profits pure strong
The majority of AOL's profits are derived from its pure advertising and commerce revenue, so strong sequential growth in this line is critical to the long-term growth story.
advertising bottom continue environment expect longer months online originally quarter raise second
We expect the challenging environment for online advertising to continue into the second quarter 2001, three-to-six months longer than we had originally expected. Because of this, we are not able to raise our bottom line estimates.
baked continue impact launch modest therefore view weak
We continue to view OXP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
achieve amazon analysis believe book eight estimate fourth holiday million product quarter revenue solid week
Our estimate for fourth quarter product revenue is approximately $1 billion. To achieve our estimate, we believe Amazon has to book about $750 million in the eight week holiday season. Our back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Delight-O-Meter suggests it is off to a solid start.
aol average continues control cost flat hour increase last pays rate several spends user
Every hour that the average user spends online, AOL pays for it directly, yet the average user only pays a flat rate of $21.95 a month. So if usage continues to go up, AOL's cost continues to increase and this is something they've started to control over the last several quarters.
anytime believe continue few industry internet investor respect spoils
As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.
believe current fact future near prediction prices relative stock stocks stronger timing
The timing of this reset relative to the current stock prices is, again, not a prediction of future weakness. In fact we believe that many of the stronger stocks may be near seasonal bottoms.
believe companies customers gain online retailing running sector spend
We believe there could be a shakeout in the B2C (business-to-consumer) online retailing sector as companies that have had to spend aggressively to gain new customers will be running out of money.