Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
advertising consumer continue continues disposable drivers estimate growth income major market percent three total traffic
There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector: traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U.S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
continue earnings environment fleeing growth investors likely market percent slower stock
Near-term, in a market environment in which investors are fleeing to quality, its stock could continue to do well. Our analysis, however, suggests that the company's long-term earnings growth is likely to be slower than the 15 percent to 20 percent consensus.
accelerate advertising believe continue expect growth market modestly online percent quarter toughest
We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
advertising believe bottom continue estimate growth market online until
We continue to believe in the long-term growth of online advertising. Near-term, however, we don't believe the market will bottom until the first quarter. We estimate only single-digit year-over-year market growth in the first quarter.
awkward believe company continue despite earnings expect growing growth investors momentum patient revenue transition upside
We do not expect significant upside to our estimates. As we have said before, we believe the company is going through an awkward transition from a hyper-growth, revenue momentum story to a long-term growth and earnings story. Despite its growing pains, we continue to believe long-term, patient investors will be rewarded.
continued growth mark question remains
The big question mark remains the long-term sustainable growth rate, especially with continued deceleration of U.S. business.
advertising commerce critical derived growth line majority profits pure strong
The majority of AOL's profits are derived from its pure advertising and commerce revenue, so strong sequential growth in this line is critical to the long-term growth story.
buy change companies company continue economy effect emerged emerging example feeling few global gone history internet large next opportunity pc pcs support
We think the Internet is tremendously profound. It will continue to have an effect on the global economy over the next five-to-10 years. But there's no way that it is a large enough opportunity to support the 400 companies that have gone public. And I think if you look back in history at different emerging industries, we've often had this feeling that the PCs for example are going to change the world. All you have to do is buy a PC company and you're safe. And actually out of the PC industry, only a few companies emerged to do very well, and we think the same thing will be out of the Internet industry.
endless exhausted financial investors simply
We are simply exhausted by the endless postponement of financial gratification - and we think other investors are, too.
against bid commercial paid paying rank search time user
With paid search, advertisers bid against each other for rank positioning on commercial search terms, paying each time a user 'clicks' on their result.
advertising bottom continue environment expect longer months online originally quarter raise second
We expect the challenging environment for online advertising to continue into the second quarter 2001, three-to-six months longer than we had originally expected. Because of this, we are not able to raise our bottom line estimates.
baked continue impact launch modest therefore view weak
We continue to view OXP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
aol average continues control cost flat hour increase last pays rate several spends user
Every hour that the average user spends online, AOL pays for it directly, yet the average user only pays a flat rate of $21.95 a month. So if usage continues to go up, AOL's cost continues to increase and this is something they've started to control over the last several quarters.
anytime believe continue few industry internet investor respect spoils
As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.