Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
continued growth mark question remains
The big question mark remains the long-term sustainable growth rate, especially with continued deceleration of U.S. business.
continue earnings environment fleeing growth investors likely market percent slower stock
Near-term, in a market environment in which investors are fleeing to quality, its stock could continue to do well. Our analysis, however, suggests that the company's long-term earnings growth is likely to be slower than the 15 percent to 20 percent consensus.
advertising consumer continue continues disposable drivers estimate growth income major market percent three total traffic
There continue to be three major growth drivers in the consumer sector: traffic, advertising, and commerce. Traffic growth in the U.S. continues to slow, as more than 50 percent of the total market is already online. More importantly, we estimate that more than 80 percent of disposable income is already online.
accelerate advertising believe continue expect growth market modestly online percent quarter toughest
We continue to believe that the first quarter will be the toughest quarter for online advertising. We expect market growth of only 10 percent year-over-year. We believe growth will then accelerate modestly through the year.
advertising believe bottom continue estimate growth market online until
We continue to believe in the long-term growth of online advertising. Near-term, however, we don't believe the market will bottom until the first quarter. We estimate only single-digit year-over-year market growth in the first quarter.
awkward believe company continue despite earnings expect growing growth investors momentum patient revenue transition upside
We do not expect significant upside to our estimates. As we have said before, we believe the company is going through an awkward transition from a hyper-growth, revenue momentum story to a long-term growth and earnings story. Despite its growing pains, we continue to believe long-term, patient investors will be rewarded.
advertising commerce critical derived growth line majority profits pure strong
The majority of AOL's profits are derived from its pure advertising and commerce revenue, so strong sequential growth in this line is critical to the long-term growth story.
aol biggest challenge cost faces
The biggest challenge AOL faces is really controlling its usage-based cost structure.
advertising america appears approach believe benefit companies consumer continue fall improving internet leading sector sentiment stocks strong winter
The sentiment surrounding the leading companies in the consumer Internet sector appears to be improving as we approach the seasonally strong fall and winter period. We continue to believe that some of the leading consumer advertising and e-commerce stocks -- America Online, Yahoo, and Amazon.com -- will benefit from this.
add appealed case conclude likely months six supreme until
After that point, it is likely that the case could be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add at least another six months to the outcome. So the case may not conclude until 2003.
basic continue estimates increase large loss revenue steady
At the same time, however, we continue to be discouraged by one basic trend: a steady increase in our loss estimates without a correspondingly large increase in revenue or profitability estimates.
advertising bottom continue environment expect longer months online originally quarter raise second
We expect the challenging environment for online advertising to continue into the second quarter 2001, three-to-six months longer than we had originally expected. Because of this, we are not able to raise our bottom line estimates.
baked continue impact launch modest therefore view weak
We continue to view OXP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
believe company expect goal guidance hits low miss operating range stock withdraw
We also believe that some analysts are projecting that the company will miss the low end of the guidance range in Q3 and withdraw its goal of operating profitability in Q4. As a result, if the company hits the mid-point of the guidance range and reaffirms Q4 operating profitability, we would expect the stock to go up.