Henry Blodget
Henry Blodget
Henry Blodgetis an American businessman, investor, journalist, and author...
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Given what these stocks have done, the people who are left behind start looking for other opportunities.
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We have received a number of calls on whether a combination of Yahoo and Disney would make sense. We believe an investment would be much more likely. Given that AOL-Time Warner is likely to be a real entity within a few weeks, creating a very strong global integrated media and Internet competitor, we believe other media companies will be looking to create similarly powerful internet strategies.
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We continue to think some upside is possible to these estimates, despite weakness in the online advertising market. We are not looking for as much upside as in the past, however.
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All these stocks work in waves. What goes up fast can easily go down fast. But the people who are putting money into K-Tel aren't looking for numbers, but they are playing a stock that is on fire.
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The biggest challenge AOL faces is really controlling its usage-based cost structure.
advertising america appears approach believe benefit companies consumer continue fall improving internet leading sector sentiment stocks strong winter
The sentiment surrounding the leading companies in the consumer Internet sector appears to be improving as we approach the seasonally strong fall and winter period. We continue to believe that some of the leading consumer advertising and e-commerce stocks -- America Online, Yahoo, and Amazon.com -- will benefit from this.
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After that point, it is likely that the case could be appealed to the Supreme Court, which could add at least another six months to the outcome. So the case may not conclude until 2003.
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At the same time, however, we continue to be discouraged by one basic trend: a steady increase in our loss estimates without a correspondingly large increase in revenue or profitability estimates.
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We expect the challenging environment for online advertising to continue into the second quarter 2001, three-to-six months longer than we had originally expected. Because of this, we are not able to raise our bottom line estimates.
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We continue to view OXP as a 'nice-to-have,' not a 'must-have,' especially in a weak economy. We have therefore baked only modest impact from the launch into our estimates.
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We also believe that some analysts are projecting that the company will miss the low end of the guidance range in Q3 and withdraw its goal of operating profitability in Q4. As a result, if the company hits the mid-point of the guidance range and reaffirms Q4 operating profitability, we would expect the stock to go up.
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We also believe such controversy, if any, would come at a poor time for Microsoft, given that the company is awaiting the Appeals Court ruling on the existing antitrust trial. As a result, we believe it is possible that this could put a damper on the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.
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Every hour that the average user spends online, AOL pays for it directly, yet the average user only pays a flat rate of $21.95 a month. So if usage continues to go up, AOL's cost continues to increase and this is something they've started to control over the last several quarters.
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As the shakeout continues, we continue to believe that the Internet spoils will go to the few, not the many. As one investor we respect put it, anytime a new industry emerges, many turtles hatch, few make it to the sea.