Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
adage cuts fed hikes time
There's an adage that the Fed cuts or hikes one time too many.
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I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,
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You've got a recession in the auto and computer industries, you've got inventories piling up, you've got mediocre consumer spending, you've got a terrible stock market. I think the time to cut rates is now and I think they are in a good position to do it. If the Fed shows tomorrow that they realize this economy needs stimulus, I think it would be a wonderful gift for the stock market.
economy inflation meeting move october period signs
They won't move on October 3 but, as you know, there's a meeting right after the election. If, during that period between now and November, the economy show signs of re-accelerating, and there's an inflation problem, they could move 25 (basis points) or 50 (basis points) if they had to.
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The feeling is that Bush might call for a study, a commission, a blue ribbon panel on tax change, but that, if you start talking about radical tax reform, it becomes a big, fat target for criticism.
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The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
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It's very hard to spin this story positively. My fear is this could drag on for months and months and months.
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It's changed a lot of thinking about earnings in the second quarter,
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The two candidates who had backing from organized labor got slaughtered last night. You have to conclude that protectionist arguments just aren't going anywhere.
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The Wall Street types want to make the United States attractive for investment, and a strong currency attracts investors.
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This was a pretty ugly weekend. You've got to say that the rhetoric got turned up two or three notches with people talking about stealing an election,
almost angst billion cut cuts five mild spending though
Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.