Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
kerry markets oblivious recently until
The markets until recently have been oblivious to the possibility of a Kerry win.
decide four games kerry markets people perceive perceived point red row sore three today together won
The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
agreement care change contract gold health huge political public strategies whether
I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.
congress efforts hangover spending tax type
I think sometimes after we have this type of party, there is a hangover -- and this comes in '05, ... The new Congress in '05 will make efforts to restrain growth. They may not rescind the tax cuts, but there will be spending restraint. But between now and then, it's just a party.
awful democrats guess throw time
I think that an awful lot of Democrats feel that it's time to throw in the towel, so it's a guess that he will concede today,
basis greenspan move points
I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.
basis belief certainly close domestic encouraged growth half last saying sent signal wants
I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.
bond caused impossible number numbers week
I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.
impossible number
I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze,
months
I think it will be months and months before you see this clarified.
backs bush delusional george justice maybe microsoft surprised treated until wait
I think Microsoft would like to wait until after the election, and maybe if George W. Bush wins, they could get treated better by a Bush Justice Department. I think they're delusional if they think that's going to get them out of their problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's in the backs of their minds.
blow case certainly clients clinton house issue resigned senate tougher wall
That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.
bottom bush line
My bottom line is that this not catastrophic for the Bush agenda,
higher knows layoffs moving seen start
I think everyone knows it will start moving higher because of all the layoffs we've seen so that will probably just tell us what we already know,