Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
fact major market period three
For the year, the three major indexes aren't doing much, but considering the period we're in, the fact that the market has done all right is surprising.
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If it comes in too weak, you get worries about the economy. If you get a blowout number, everyone will get obsessed about interest rates again, the bond market will go into a tizzy, and stocks will slide.
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If we show a build on the slight improvement in the labor market we've seen, if the economy continues to grow, there will be a decent November.
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Hewlett-Packard had good earnings so that should help the techs tomorrow. The other companies reporting tomorrow aren't usually market movers. Greenspan also speaks to Congress, which people will be looking at, but I don't think he'll say anything too surprising. So the hope is that HP earnings will take center stage.
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Today is very news driven. You've got GE, you've got HPQ, and the economic reports were a little better. It's the tech stocks that are leading the way. You're seeing a rotation out of the consumer stocks and into the techs.
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We're projecting technology earnings are going to grow almost 40 percent this quarter and that's on top of a very, very strong 1999. Energy company earnings obviously will grow close to 80 percent, but that's on top of a weak '99. So there are companies that should have leadership. After all, if you look at the companies that issue profit warnings last week; Maytag, McDonald's, I mean I don't think the future of growth of American economy is washing machines or cheeseburgers.
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Some of the stocks that rallied in advance of a possible Bush victory might be vulnerable.
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Some of the blue chip tech stocks, especially the Internet stocks, as we all know, have really taken it on the chin this year. So if you want to play the technology sector, you should stay with the ones that did not make warnings going forward, as did the Amazon or Nokia, so stay with those.
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Some late talk was circulating that they would move their bias. We also saw the market rallying strongly into the decision and we sold off on the disappointment. I believe we're more on the way to a soft landing.
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Markets are going to drift in this range ... until corporate profits and GDP (gross domestic product) start to improve.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates until they see several months of strong job growth. And even if they do raise rates slightly, the rates will still be right near these historic lows. GDP this morning was not as strong as expected, but you had the other two economic reports that were good.
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I just think we can't seem to get out of that range we're in. We're in a seasonally difficult time of the year. All the good news is in the market ... it needs a new catalyst.
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I guess after all this selling you could see an oversold bounce next week, and some up days here and there in early February. What's concerning is that there doesn't seem to be anything to lift us on a more consistent basis.
individual market stocks
Individual stocks can go up, but the market is too overbought internally and there is too much complacency for a rally.