Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
completed extent fed justifies rally reaction stunned
It's such a knee-jerk reaction. I don't think that what the Fed said justifies the kind of reaction we saw. I would like to think that we could rally back after the certification is completed tomorrow, but I don't know. I am just stunned by the extent of this decline. Hopefully, it was a one-time reaction.
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The big hurdles next week are the Fed meeting Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. The market reaction to those events may set the tone for the month and determine whether we'll see a November rally.
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I'm happy that things are going up in the markets but when things get too bullish and too, I don't know if they're exuberant, but too optimistic, someone will find something between the lines on the Fed statement saying, 'but they said this, they cautioned here', maybe to have to be vigilant, so people might use that as an excuse to stay profits.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates until they see several months of strong job growth. And even if they do raise rates slightly, the rates will still be right near these historic lows. GDP this morning was not as strong as expected, but you had the other two economic reports that were good.
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We've gone up nine days in a row. I think we're probably in for a brief pullback next week, probably in response to the Fed statement.
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Normally, lower rates would be seen as a positive for stocks, but in this case, it seems like the Fed is behind the curve and the Fed is supposed to be leading us out of this. For months people have been talking about the disconnect between the economy and stock prices. Now it's starting to seem like that disconnect is narrowing.
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The silver lining on this is that it confirms that the Federal Reserve will not be raising interest rates anytime soon, which is good news for the market.
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I hate to say it, but maybe there's a bet that if Kerry wins, (former Secretary of the Treasury) Robert Rubin will take over as Fed chairman, and the market would like that.
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I think the Fed meant to say something reassuring about the economy, but the result was very confusing.
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The market really can't advance that strongly as long as the Fed is raising rates.
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I'm maybe more optimistic for the end of the year, but for the next few weeks, I think we are still in these treacherous waters. We're just going to have to grin and bear it, and then maybe we'll see a run up in November and December.
bad earnings
Earnings have come in not as bad as the expectations.
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There's tremendous relief after all the selling, and statistically, we have some verification that this could be a bottom. But that doesn't mean we're going to see another day like this. There's still tremendous negativity.
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I'm not so sure that the rally was commensurate with the news out of the Fed. They seemed to say that they're going to keep rates low for a long time, which wasn't a surprise, but maybe people felt better seeing it spelled out more clearly.