Donald Selkin
Donald Selkin
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Right now business stinks, consumer confidence is down, the travel industry is suffering and the economic reports haven't been good and any economic recovery is going to be linked to the war. There haven't been too many first-quarter negative pre-announcements, but I'm still worried about corporate profits in the first quarter.
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Today is very news driven. You've got GE, you've got HPQ, and the economic reports were a little better. It's the tech stocks that are leading the way. You're seeing a rotation out of the consumer stocks and into the techs.
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Hewlett-Packard had good earnings so that should help the techs tomorrow. The other companies reporting tomorrow aren't usually market movers. Greenspan also speaks to Congress, which people will be looking at, but I don't think he'll say anything too surprising. So the hope is that HP earnings will take center stage.
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We have the consumer confidence report tomorrow. I don't see how that's going to be any good. I would consider it a victory if we get (a reading) of 82.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates until they see several months of strong job growth. And even if they do raise rates slightly, the rates will still be right near these historic lows. GDP this morning was not as strong as expected, but you had the other two economic reports that were good.
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The wording of the statement will be important, and then you've also got Cisco and Dell reporting next week.
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The big hurdles next week are the Fed meeting Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. The market reaction to those events may set the tone for the month and determine whether we'll see a November rally.
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The reports after the bell looked pretty good, including Texas Instruments, and that should probably help the techs tomorrow.
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The market's at the top of a range here. The earnings reporting period basically ended with Dell and now the market is waiting for a new catalyst.
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This shows that investors are ready to take on more of a tolerance for risk.
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With earnings winding down and not as much to focus on, you're getting very volatile reactions to economic numbers that are actually pretty close to estimates. You're also seeing some of the defensive names that are dependent on an economic recovery trading lower.
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We saw a 2 or 3 percent pullback in early November and it has come back since then. What could take us higher in December is a good pre-announcement season.
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Even though the averages themselves are doing nothing, there are some special situations going on here. There's a lot of action away from the averages.
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Between Texas Instruments, the rise in oil prices, and commodities, we got hit today. But the decline wasn't terrible. Last week we had nice gains, and today, we're kind of consolidating.