Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.
beginning bit confession disturbing early expect higher negative normal normally number running somewhat
Well, it's still the beginning of the so-called confession season, but it is a little disturbing in that we're running somewhat higher than the normal number of pre-announcements that we would expect this early. And we're running a little bit more negative than we normally do at this early stage.
finger momentum negative news pendulum pushed somebody stuck swing worse
It's like somebody stuck their finger in there and pushed the pendulum to the pessimistic side, so it'll probably swing out further. So the back swing is probably going to have a lot more momentum than it would have had otherwise. The negative is the news is going to be worse in the short-term, but we're probably going to get over it sooner.
critical less negative question
The critical question isn't are we having a lot of negative pre-announcements, but are we having more or less than normal.
negative quarter record terms
We still are going to suffer. We are well on our way to a record quarter in terms of negative preannouncements.
beat definitely earnings fourth further maybe negative prospects somewhere
I think we'll probably end up somewhere around negative 4 or negative 5 percent. Some will probably beat expectations, but not many. Down earnings is definitely in the cards, and the prospects of maybe even down earnings further in the fourth quarter.
came last negative percent ton
Last year, 43 percent of the negative pre-announcements came after Jan. 1, so there will be a ton more.
bit despite earnings fourth good growth highest less match negative peak percent pessimism quarter running seen since time
Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.