Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
easier indirect result sound stuff useful
I'm disappointed and I am surprised. I think it would have been useful to have an extraordinary category. Now it's going to be easier to make it sound like all this indirect stuff was a result of the attack.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
companies good next week
We got a lot of companies this week, but it wasn't a good cross-section of industries. Next week is a much better cross-section. But so far, so good.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
growth half hanging market second
The big thing hanging over the market is what kind of growth we're going to see in the second half of the year.
deviation expected percent quarter
Any deviation from that 15 percent for the quarter is expected to be lower, not higher.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.
worse
I would have expected, even without FD, to see more preannouncements this quarter. Things are worse out there.
case decline earnings since war worst
But this decline is deeper. You could make the case that this is the worst earnings decline since World War II.