Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
beat beating estimates less lining looks normally silver start until
It looks like we are going to beat the estimates by less than we normally do. Until we start beating them by more than we used to, there's no silver lining in these reports.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
behind continue estimates levels seen
Analysts are still behind the curve. We will continue to see estimates for 2002 being slashed. We haven't seen the levels of over-pessimism and capitulation yet.
earnings estimates percent second third
The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.
correction high learned lessons people rebound september shares since technology
The rebound in the technology shares since September 21 has been huge. I think the valuations are too high again. I don't think people learned their lessons with the correction we had.
companies good next week
We got a lot of companies this week, but it wasn't a good cross-section of industries. Next week is a much better cross-section. But so far, so good.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.
bad good news slope somewhat worries
The good news is that the recovery's in sight. The bad news is that there's a lot of uncertainty about what the slope of the recovery's going to look like and worries that it'll be somewhat disappointing.
earnings fourth positive quarter
On the earnings front, there's not much on the positive side. ...The fourth quarter is going to be a disaster.
worse
I would have expected, even without FD, to see more preannouncements this quarter. Things are worse out there.
case decline earnings since war worst
But this decline is deeper. You could make the case that this is the worst earnings decline since World War II.