Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
correction high learned lessons people rebound september shares since technology
The rebound in the technology shares since September 21 has been huge. I think the valuations are too high again. I don't think people learned their lessons with the correction we had.
beat beating estimates less lining looks normally silver start until
It looks like we are going to beat the estimates by less than we normally do. Until we start beating them by more than we used to, there's no silver lining in these reports.
critical less negative question
The critical question isn't are we having a lot of negative pre-announcements, but are we having more or less than normal.
bit despite earnings fourth good growth highest less match negative peak percent pessimism quarter running seen since time
Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.
april expect lower numbers somewhere week
We expect the numbers to be somewhere lower by the week of April 13, when all the (quarterly earnings) announcements will have been made.
certainly looking negative
We certainly think it will end up in negative territory. I think you've got to be looking at 2002 for any recovery.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
earnings growth revenue slowing
The story on slowing earnings growth and revenue growth is not over.
almost certainly earnings next turn
Earnings are bottoming out and will almost certainly turn up in the next quarter.
earnings focus judgment short term
Quarterly earnings are still made up to be too important, in my judgment. There's too much focus on the short term by far.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
negative people season upset
Every quarter, people get all upset when the pre-announcement season is on and it always has a negative bias. I don't think there is anything to be alarmed about.
earnings growth heading market stock
We really thought growth would taper off heading into 2000 and it hasn't. It isn't going to be earnings that prick the stock market bubble.
beginning bit confession disturbing early expect higher negative normal normally number running somewhat
Well, it's still the beginning of the so-called confession season, but it is a little disturbing in that we're running somewhat higher than the normal number of pre-announcements that we would expect this early. And we're running a little bit more negative than we normally do at this early stage.