Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
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The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
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Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.
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Any time you get more than one central banker in a room together the antennas are bound to go up and send a shiver down the market's spine.
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There doesn't seem to be any one trigger. The idea of technology being such a high growth area is true but maybe revenue growth isn't as robust as anticipated. It's more one of anxiety by investors that evidence is mounting the Fed may need to be more aggressive.
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We've had a lot of good news in the last couple of months. Most recently, we had the Fed hold the line, we had another employment report that was reasonable and now we've had gold plunge -- all of which have been encouraging to the bond market. Stocks have come along with the bond market.
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Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.
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Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.
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As long as value remains stretched in the more speculative end of technology, anything that blemishes it will prompt an emotional sell-off.
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The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.
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The sooner we can line up company A against company B and have some modicum of evidence the books have been prepared in a similar fashion, the better off the market is going to be. Even if the bottom line ends up looking mighty lean.
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Of course I'll look at it; it will be useful information.
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Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.
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Next week I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the bulls will come back from the beach and do a little buying.
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News of some sort of explosion over in the Middle East was conveniently coincidental with the market downturn, so I've got to think that had something to do with it.