Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
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Next week I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the bulls will come back from the beach and do a little buying.
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We've seen a lot of jumping around in stocks the last three or four sessions, and I think we'll see more of the same next week.
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I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.
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The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
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The market is extremely high-strung right now and it's going to react excessively to any news, good or bad. Next week is what I consider to be one of the market's critical weeks. It's going to be a busy week.
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The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.
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Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.
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The sooner we can line up company A against company B and have some modicum of evidence the books have been prepared in a similar fashion, the better off the market is going to be. Even if the bottom line ends up looking mighty lean.
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Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.
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My broad advice is to concentrate on individual issues as opposed to trying to predict where the market is going. Making market calls is of very little value whatsoever.
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Most analysts expect it to be a bumpy earnings season. A few negative surprises could cause a little indigestion for stocks.
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Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.
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Of course I'll look at it; it will be useful information.
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There doesn't seem to be any one trigger. The idea of technology being such a high growth area is true but maybe revenue growth isn't as robust as anticipated. It's more one of anxiety by investors that evidence is mounting the Fed may need to be more aggressive.