Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
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I think that we are seeing some terrific earnings coming out of the technology sector here in the second quarter. The reality is that earnings are going to remain good in the second half of the year. The question on everybody's mind is are they going to be good enough to meet expectations.
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Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.
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If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.
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We've seen very satisfactory earnings growth. There's a hope that the Fed is close to the end of its tightening campaign.
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I think the advice to any investor is try to block out as much macro noise as you can but resist the temptation to think this is a market bottom -- it's a lottery ticket.
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I think they are. I think that the Fed either finished its tightening for this cycle, or it has 25 basis points to go in a couple of weeks. I do not see the Fed tightening further in August.
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My broad advice is to concentrate on individual issues as opposed to trying to predict where the market is going. Making market calls is of very little value whatsoever.
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Most analysts expect it to be a bumpy earnings season. A few negative surprises could cause a little indigestion for stocks.
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I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.
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Any time you get more than one central banker in a room together the antennas are bound to go up and send a shiver down the market's spine.
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The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
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We've had a lot of good news in the last couple of months. Most recently, we had the Fed hold the line, we had another employment report that was reasonable and now we've had gold plunge -- all of which have been encouraging to the bond market. Stocks have come along with the bond market.
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Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.
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Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.