Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
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The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.
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There doesn't seem to be any one trigger. The idea of technology being such a high growth area is true but maybe revenue growth isn't as robust as anticipated. It's more one of anxiety by investors that evidence is mounting the Fed may need to be more aggressive.
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The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
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If there's any doubt about this bull market's stamina, yesterday should have quieted some of those doubts. There was no news, positive or negative, in the marketplace. And yet the Dow rose to an all-time high and the broader market was strong as well.
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Even in an overvalued market, you'll still be able to find good stocks to buy. The market still looks okay.
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The sooner we can line up company A against company B and have some modicum of evidence the books have been prepared in a similar fashion, the better off the market is going to be. Even if the bottom line ends up looking mighty lean.
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Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.
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My broad advice is to concentrate on individual issues as opposed to trying to predict where the market is going. Making market calls is of very little value whatsoever.
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Most analysts expect it to be a bumpy earnings season. A few negative surprises could cause a little indigestion for stocks.
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Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.
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Of course I'll look at it; it will be useful information.
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We've had a lot of good news in the last couple of months. Most recently, we had the Fed hold the line, we had another employment report that was reasonable and now we've had gold plunge -- all of which have been encouraging to the bond market. Stocks have come along with the bond market.
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Next week I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the bulls will come back from the beach and do a little buying.
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News of some sort of explosion over in the Middle East was conveniently coincidental with the market downturn, so I've got to think that had something to do with it.