Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
cycle easing economy economy-and-economics expect fed hold showing signs
With the economy showing signs of life, the Fed easing cycle is probably at an end. We expect the Fed to hold steady.
fourth growth people picking quarter recovery signs since strongly suggest
And the signs since the fourth quarter suggest growth picking up in the first quarter more strongly than most people had anticipated. So I would say the recovery is here.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
believe earnings next operating performance sector share snap tech worst year
Tech will have the worst performance of any S&P sector in 2001 with operating earnings per share plunging 73 percent. But next year (2002) we believe tech earnings will snap back strongly.
easily gains gradually job market percent support
As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
economic stay
We have to stay tuned for more economic data.
anytime expect fed late move occur summer unlikely
We don't expect the Fed to tighten anytime soon. The first tightening move is unlikely to occur before late summer at the very soonest.
believe continue far fed inflation markets talk
We believe the Fed is done. But even if the Fed is done, it will continue to talk tough, stressing inflation risks, in part to keep markets from going to far too soon.
behind data showing worst
Today's unemployment data were as expected, showing that we are still in a recession, but that the worst is behind us.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
believe raise rates twice
I believe they are going to raise rates at least twice more after today.
easily headed job loss october rate
October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
capital data indication provides quite report second spending state
This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.
believe data indicate last miracle recent recently revised talk
There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening.