Bill Dreher
Bill Dreher
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There has been real concern for the last several months about hurricanes, about consumer sentiment, about gasoline inflation hurting consumer spending,
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While integration risk is always the greatest concern with mergers, we have a high comfort level that the (Federated) game plan is achievable.
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We knew Sears was going to have some rough sledding ahead but what's obvious now is that it's going to be a lot rougher than anticipated,
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We're not out of the woods yet. Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.
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We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.
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Even though Wal-Mart is definitely in a better position than most retailers to absorb any shortfalls, others could be in for a very tough period ahead.
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There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers. The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break.
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We knew today was going to be a disaster. What surprises us was how bad it was was.
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On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.
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I think high-end retail sales will get a boost from this news.
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Retailers that are not catering that well to the middle- and upper-income customers are going to have a tough time.
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The announcement by Neiman Marcus...makes us as concerned as we have ever been that this Christmas will be extremely lackluster. It appears now the high-end consumer is beginning to scale back their purchases, which does not bode well for the holiday season. This type of thing is clearly going to have an impact on other high-end retailers.
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I think there's a lot of confusion about the state of the consumer. We had weak numbers in January. February sales were pushed down by horrible weather, and now March could be weak because of the Easter shift. It's difficult to see how things are going to turn out.
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I think there continues to be a very strong psychological impact with people worried about their own safety and the safety of their families. I don't know what's going on with this flight, but whatever it turns out to be, it adds a significant psychological impact on consumer spending and on how the stocks behave.