Bill Dreher
Bill Dreher
believe benefit best discount energy expect increasing job leader looking people portion stores talk tax value
Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.
believe button cause closer dealing declines earlier increase inventory panic percent possible push retailers sales
On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.
believe colder february impact likely majority negative retailers sales sets spring store stores weather
We believe this will have a negative impact on February sales for the majority of our retailers as the much colder weather will likely impede store traffic, and sales of spring merchandise sets that are now in stores may be impacted.
believe sales typical unusually update warm
We believe this update is a combination of management's typical conservatism and sales sluggishness from the unusually warm weather.
average believe benefit christmas consumer department exuberance gasoline higher irrational jobs shown stock stores suffer target worried
We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.
allow believe both growth increase margins move next operating opportunity range seen stock third trading tremendous twice year
Wal-Mart's EPS growth is twice that of the S&P. For the third consecutive year it has seen an increase in operating margins and we believe it still has tremendous growth opportunity over the next 5 to 10 years both domestically and abroad. At the very least, this should allow the stock to come off the low-end of the trading range and move higher.
appeared bang consumer expecting flooded robust sales season september
The back-to-school season started with a bang and we're expecting robust sales in September because the consumer appeared to be flooded with cash.
intent last learned lessons repeating year
They've learned the lessons from last year and are intent upon not repeating the same mistakes.
anyone company earnings environment excuse improved lock month overall posting quarter rest retailers sales specific start stellar weak
There's very little excuse for anyone posting weak sales right now, ... If that is happening, it because of company specific excuses. The macro environment overall is very strong. The first month of the quarter got a stellar start and that usually put a lock on the rest of the quarter. Retailers should post improved earnings going forward.
lower translate
Not only is there top-line pressure, but this is also going to translate into lower margins,
advertising amazing best campaign cool discount job marketing pushing shop store target
Target has the best advertising marketing campaign in retailing. They do an amazing job of elevating a discount store to a very cool destination shop and so they are always pushing the envelope.
battery build clear company efforts itself management national sale step strengthen tire unit
It's clear that the company is redoubling efforts to strengthen itself and build a competitive advantage. Anything that distracts the management from doing just that will be de-emphasized. The sale of its National Tire and Battery unit is a step in that direction.
appears coming confidence consumer data economic far income levels oil pause period positive prices rising sales slowing taking
There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers. The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break.
absorb definitely others period position retailers though tough
Even though Wal-Mart is definitely in a better position than most retailers to absorb any shortfalls, others could be in for a very tough period ahead.