Bill Dreher
Bill Dreher
concern consumer gasoline hurting inflation last months several
There has been real concern for the last several months about hurricanes, about consumer sentiment, about gasoline inflation hurting consumer spending,
achieve aggressive allowed christmas clearly days despite lack last month plans promotions retailers sales saw strong
Clearly the last 10 days before Christmas were very strong and allowed retailers to achieve their sales plans for the month despite the lack of aggressive promotions we saw in 2002.
last month september simply stellar surpass
Any retailer who could not surpass expectations last month has to have company-specific problems. September was simply a stellar month.
bargains best consumers game held holiday last mad minute result retailers rush spirit unknown until waited week
Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.
intent last learned lessons repeating year
They've learned the lessons from last year and are intent upon not repeating the same mistakes.
comfort concern game greatest high level plan risk
While integration risk is always the greatest concern with mergers, we have a high comfort level that the (Federated) game plan is achievable.
ahead knew obvious rough
We knew Sears was going to have some rough sledding ahead but what's obvious now is that it's going to be a lot rougher than anticipated,
forty holiday percent sales week woods wrapped
We're not out of the woods yet. Forty percent of holiday sales are wrapped up in the week before Christmas.
average believe benefit christmas consumer department exuberance gasoline higher irrational jobs shown stock stores suffer target worried
We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.
absorb definitely others period position retailers though tough
Even though Wal-Mart is definitely in a better position than most retailers to absorb any shortfalls, others could be in for a very tough period ahead.
appears coming confidence consumer data economic far income levels oil pause period positive prices rising sales slowing taking
There appears to be a pause in consumer spending, especially with the low-to-middle income consumers. The slowing sales also counterbalance positive economic data that show rising income and confidence levels and oil prices coming down. As far as sales go, this is a period where the consumer is taking a break.
bad disaster knew surprises today
We knew today was going to be a disaster. What surprises us was how bad it was was.
believe button cause closer dealing declines earlier increase inventory panic percent possible push retailers sales
On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.
boost retail sales
I think high-end retail sales will get a boost from this news.