Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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Commissions add up, taxes are a big drag, margin ain't cheap. A good accountant costs money as well. The math on this one is obvious, yet investors often fail to recognize it: Keep your costs low and your turnover lower, and you will win in the end.
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Yearly data put the rest of the noise into perspective. Most of the weekly or monthly random up-and-down movements get smoothed out. Ultimately, this is where long-term investors should be focused.
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Often, investors will discover a manager after he's had a terrific run, usually when he lands on a magazine cover somewhere. Invariably, funds swell up with new investor money just before they revert to their long-term averages.
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Investors tend to discover 'hot' mutual fund managers just after a successful run and just before the inescapable force of mean reversion is about to kick in.
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Hedge funds are not especially liquid. Many are 'gated' - meaning there are only small windows when you can withdraw your money. They typically have a high minimum investment and often require investors keep their money in the fund for at least one year.
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A hedge fund manager whose clients demand monthly performance reports has different needs than any individual investors with a 20-year time horizon. The needs of that long-term investor differ markedly from someone who is retiring in three years.
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Good investors must learn to contextualize the daily background noise.
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You can't fight the bond market. There's only so much the Fed can do. If investors are more concerned about economic growth slowing down in the future than inflation, they will flock to bonds.
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I'm looking for really good earnings, and I don't know that it's going to juice the market all that much. In order to go significantly higher, what's the catalyst?
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The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good.
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The bond market is far less sanguine about the economy than the Fed is. They are essentially saying we don't see that much strength.
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Stock valuations have been stretched, everyone knows a rate hike is coming and great earnings are already baked into the stock market, so you're seeing this churning, and unfortunately, I would expect it to continue for the next few weeks.
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The Fed doesn't have to jack up rates really quickly since other economic indicators are softening. Capital expenditures are modest and employment figures are anemic, so the biggest danger the Fed faces is smothering the recovery.
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It was a matter of time before the core rate started feeling the effects of increased energy and commodity prices. Maybe it's aberrational but maybe it's the start of something more significant.