Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
based call decades fashions few lifetime move several time
Based on a lifetime of observations and a few decades in the markets, I understand that societies, beliefs and fashions all move in long arcs of time. We call these arcs several things: cycles, periods, eras.
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Any time you speak to people about their posture, you learn about their most recent investment activity. When someone just bought stocks, they tend to be bullish; someone who just sold is bearish.
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A hedge fund manager whose clients demand monthly performance reports has different needs than any individual investors with a 20-year time horizon. The needs of that long-term investor differ markedly from someone who is retiring in three years.
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If you have read me for any length of time, you know I am less than enthralled with much of what passes for financial news.
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I have been a member of the Microsoft-bashing society for quite some time.
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Once you research an idea, you begin to develop a perspective. Writing about anything in public, often in real time, has helped fashion my views.
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Most of the time, economic data is fairly benign. I don't wish to imply it is meaningless, but it is not a driver of stock markets. Indeed, the correlation between economic noise and how equity markets perform has been wildly overemphasized.
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The ability to select stocks, manage them over time and know when to sell them is incredibly difficult, even for professional fund managers.
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Little white lies are told by humans all the time. Indeed, lying is often how we get through each day in a happy little bubble. We spend time and energy rationalizing our own behaviors, beliefs and decision-making processes.
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It was a matter of time before the core rate started feeling the effects of increased energy and commodity prices. Maybe it's aberrational but maybe it's the start of something more significant.
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The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good.
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We see inflation rearing its head across the board. Contrary to what a lot of people have been saying, it's not just energy.
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Earnings have been coming in across the board pretty good, but the problem hasn't been earnings. The issue is the forward-looking statements for the fourth quarter or 2006. Despite good numbers, you see some stocks getting punished. It's a function of the outlook.
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There's still upside in tech but it's going to be more grudging and grinding and choppy, it's not going to be this moon shot that we saw a year ago.