Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
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Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.
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Stock valuations have been stretched, everyone knows a rate hike is coming and great earnings are already baked into the stock market, so you're seeing this churning, and unfortunately, I would expect it to continue for the next few weeks.
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With Twitter, you can build your own virtual trading floor and research department, populated by the smartest people on earth. Almost any subject or sector has you can think of, you can find a few people with an expertise in that area.
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Based on a lifetime of observations and a few decades in the markets, I understand that societies, beliefs and fashions all move in long arcs of time. We call these arcs several things: cycles, periods, eras.
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We need to see a confirmation in the next few weeks. We need another session of gains of 1 to 2 percent for all the major indexes before I'll be confident that this is a bottom.
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When you see a 250-point spurt like that in less than two months, that's not sustainable. What this pullback is doing, and I think will continue to do, is bring us back to a more sustainable level.
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When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.
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We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over.
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There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.
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Markets tend to temporarily wobble, and then return to their prior behavior. So don't panic or make any decisions based on your knee-jerk emotions.
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Markets don't make a top and then slide, topping is a process. Typically markets make an initial top, back off, try to surpass it, and can't do it.
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When Greenspan spoke the market rallied, and when he stopped it gave the gains back.
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The only dark cloud to this number is that now the Fed has no reason whatsoever to stop raising rates.