Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.
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The bond market is far less sanguine about the economy than the Fed is. They are essentially saying we don't see that much strength.
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The Fed doesn't have to jack up rates really quickly since other economic indicators are softening. Capital expenditures are modest and employment figures are anemic, so the biggest danger the Fed faces is smothering the recovery.
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Truth be told, most financial television bores me. Two or more people discussing the latest economic trends or hot stocks is not especially entertaining.
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TV producers want ratings and are willing to do nearly anything to get them. They gin up artificial conflicts and create an urgency for even the most minor of economic data points.
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Most of the time, economic data is fairly benign. I don't wish to imply it is meaningless, but it is not a driver of stock markets. Indeed, the correlation between economic noise and how equity markets perform has been wildly overemphasized.
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A number of bloggers in economics and the financial sector have risen to prominence through the sheer strength of their work. Note it was not their family connections nor ties to Ivy League schools or elite banks, but rather the strength of their research, analysis and writing.
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The market never met a tax cut it didn't like and it would not be happy with a complete roll back, ... but if the economic recovery seems to be full-throated, the market might be willing to accept the rolling back of select tax cuts as a means of reducing the deficit, making John Edwards and John Kerry more appealing.
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You can't fight the bond market. There's only so much the Fed can do. If investors are more concerned about economic growth slowing down in the future than inflation, they will flock to bonds.
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When you see a 250-point spurt like that in less than two months, that's not sustainable. What this pullback is doing, and I think will continue to do, is bring us back to a more sustainable level.
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When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.
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We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
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We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over.
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Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.