Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionAuthor
CountryUnited States of America
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We were in this post-election trading range from November to April, and that broke down, ... The bull market has at least one more major run in it, but I think it's probably going to be sometime over the summer, when stocks get appreciably cheaper.
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The big issue is decelerating earnings growth. Earnings will still be higher but the ideal time to buy stocks is when earnings go from awful to not so bad as opposed to going from great to good.
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Earnings have been coming in across the board pretty good, but the problem hasn't been earnings. The issue is the forward-looking statements for the fourth quarter or 2006. Despite good numbers, you see some stocks getting punished. It's a function of the outlook.
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Tech stocks are probably a little pricey. But they're not stupid pricey.
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Truth be told, most financial television bores me. Two or more people discussing the latest economic trends or hot stocks is not especially entertaining.
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Here is a dirty little secret: Stock-picking is wildly overrated. Sure, it makes for great cocktail party chatter, and what is more fun than delving into a company's new products? But the truth is that individual stocks are riskier than broad indices.
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To know whether stocks are cheap or pricey, we typically look at price-to-earnings ratio. Valuation is a tougher question than many folks realize.
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If tech stocks keep going up with no pause, they will get insanely frothy.
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When you see a 250-point spurt like that in less than two months, that's not sustainable. What this pullback is doing, and I think will continue to do, is bring us back to a more sustainable level.
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When you stop and think about it, if the Fed were to pause, what does it actually do for anybody ... in the afflicted Gulf region? At this point they're more concerned with basic food and shelter and not really comparison-shopping for mortgages.
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We've got a nice snapback today. We got shellacked over the last few days, so it's not surprising to see a little bounce back.
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We've seen expectations cut and cut and cut. When you lower the bar enough, eventually it becomes easy enough to hurdle over.
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There is a lot of economic news to digest between now and the next meeting. If we see economic signs that are positive, then that would encourage the Fed to stay on the course of gradual rate hikes, but if things slow down then maybe they would skip a meeting or two.
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Regardless of whether this upcoming release shows inflation today, given the supply shock to oil, we're expected to see inflation move higher in the next few months. It would certainly put a fork in the concept that the Fed has the opportunity to pause.