Barclays Capital
Barclays Capital
Barclays Investment Bankis the investment banking division of the British multinational Barclays bank headquartered in London. It provides advisory, financing and risk management services to large companies, institutions and government clients. It is a primary dealer in U.S. Treasury securities and various European Government bonds...
cut fall looking meeting oil output pressure prices prior sharp
A sharp fall in oil prices prior to OPEC's end-January meeting is looking increasingly unlikely, and the pressure on OPEC to make a cut to output prior to Q2 is abating.
clear current despite extremely forming high large levels market output sign surplus
What is clear is that despite OPEC's extremely high current output levels there is little sign of a large surplus forming in the market just yet.
alone barrels expected gasoline loss order output plants potential
The loss in potential gasoline output from these plants alone is expected to be of the order of 600,000 barrels a day.
capacity crude lacks oil refine short spare
Crude oil was the one thing not in short supply. What the U.S. lacks is oil products, especially gasoline, and it lacks the spare capacity to refine more crude.
break continue likely looks potential prices though trade upside
Range-bound trade looks likely to continue for some time, though we see potential for prices to break on the upside after this consolidation phase.
appears bullish continue downside limited near prices range remains sentiment though underlying wide
Prices should continue to consolidate in the wide range of $535-$555 in the near term, though the underlying sentiment remains bullish and downside appears limited at present.
beyond context global grind inclined interest numbers respond suffering weekly
Some (traders) are suffering risk-fatigue and are not inclined to respond to anything much beyond the grind of the weekly U.S. numbers and have little interest in the geopolitical context or the global context of the data.
begin data early later product situation sooner supply though weekly
Sooner or later the seriousness of the situation for U.S. product supply will begin to show in the weekly U.S. data releases, though it may still be too early for that today.
demand miss price remain supply
Don't miss the boat, again. Supply and demand fundamentals remain constructive for the price up-trends to persist.
apparent believe chinese crude demand figures imports october oil period rise signals stronger
We believe the rise in Chinese crude oil imports in October signals a period of stronger Chinese apparent demand figures over Q4 2005 and Q1 2006.
above balance cannot commodity dominating further gains gold high inventory market momentum oil prices ruled strong terms
While we think such high prices are not justifiable by gold 's commodity fundamentals in terms of market balance and inventory levels, the combination of a surge in oil prices above $70/barrel, geopolitical tensions and strong momentum is dominating at present, and further gains cannot be ruled out.
area close company complete continue due either lack obvious question situation strike workers
We continue to question how close the situation now is to either complete company withdrawal from the area or a strike by workers due to the obvious lack of security.
continue expect forecast minutes rate risk suggest tone upside
We continue to expect two more rate hikes, but the dovish tone of the minutes suggest that upside risk to this forecast is limited.
balances below current demand estimates fallen further gasoline indicate market oil relative remains year
U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.