Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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This was a nice way to start off the new year. A lot of this was driven by the fact that the Fed confirmed that end is in sight. We've held onto the belief that when the Fed ends that stock prices will go up. We'll still have rate hikes but the market is celebrating that we'll see an ending sooner than later.
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We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.
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We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.
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Last week energy and interest rates were the focus on Wall Street. It will probably be the same this week, as well as a few mid-quarter updates,
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Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.
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He's been very clear. The Fed may take a pause for a month or two, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the rate hikes.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
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I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.
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The retail stores are doing well. Consumers remain confident, continue to be out there spending their money, ... A lot of money was created with lower interest rates and refinancing -- things of that nature. So, consumer confidence has stayed very high and retail stores, that have actually done it right, have been doing pretty well.
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The Fed will take the rising price of oil into consideration when it meets, ... The market is still pricing in a rate hike at the end of June, but the question becomes what happens if oil stays above $42 a barrel.
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The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise. But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.
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The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise, ... But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.
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The Fed cuts rates because they're worried about the economy, ... They're not as worried because they only cut rates by 25 basis points, so things are getting better and there's stabilization.
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I'm not sure how judicious it is, but the market looks like it will move energy to the side stage, while rate hikes and the Federal Open Market Committee again take center stage.