Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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This was a nice way to start off the new year. A lot of this was driven by the fact that the Fed confirmed that end is in sight. We've held onto the belief that when the Fed ends that stock prices will go up. We'll still have rate hikes but the market is celebrating that we'll see an ending sooner than later.
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We are starting to see (economic) stabilization and, I think the fact that the Fed didn't make a move speaks to that.
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When the Federal Reserve is in a (interest rate) tightening mode it's difficult to get excited about old economy stocks,
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We've got a lot of economic news between now and the next Fed meeting in May. The path of least resistance is higher, but there's a bumpy road.
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If we continue to see the trend slowing and we get better (economic) numbers, I think the Fed can take a pass at the end of the month and wait until August.
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No one thinks the Fed is going to raise rates, so to what avail does a benign PPI number do to the market,
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People are bid up the market by the close to get ahead of the Fed on the hope of a 'Fed bounce' tomorrow (Tuesday), ... We're still well within the time frame of the Fed's monetary policy stimulating the economy, but people are just tired of waiting for it.
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Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.
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He's been very clear. The Fed may take a pause for a month or two, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the rate hikes.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
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Depending on what day it is we focus on earnings, we focus on the Fed. We have to get the Fed behind us before we really pick a direction. I think that direction will be higher, but not until next Wednesday.
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I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.
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If we can continue to see (the economy slowing down) perhaps we're done after Tuesday's Fed meeting.