Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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During earnings, we're often in a trading range, and I think we still are right now. We've got 100 members of the S&P reporting this week, a lot of economic news and the Fed tomorrow, so for the market to go sideways a bit is not a bad thing.
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The revisions are in the right direction, but there's still some softness in the manufacturing sector which keeps the Fed on watch in terms of interest rates, ... It's sort of an 'in line' number, but not really closing the door to keeping the Fed aggressive with monetary policy.
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If we continue to see the trend slowing and we get better (economic) numbers, I think the Fed can take a pass at the end of the month and wait until August.
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No one thinks the Fed is going to raise rates, so to what avail does a benign PPI number do to the market,
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This was a nice way to start off the new year. A lot of this was driven by the fact that the Fed confirmed that end is in sight. We've held onto the belief that when the Fed ends that stock prices will go up. We'll still have rate hikes but the market is celebrating that we'll see an ending sooner than later.
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When the Federal Reserve is in a (interest rate) tightening mode it's difficult to get excited about old economy stocks,
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We've got a lot of economic news between now and the next Fed meeting in May. The path of least resistance is higher, but there's a bumpy road.
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We are starting to see (economic) stabilization and, I think the fact that the Fed didn't make a move speaks to that.
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It's good news because it shows there's no creeping inflation. And the Fed is not worried about inflation. What they care about is the manufacturing side of things, retail sales and consumer spending.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
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You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.
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Depending on what day it is we focus on earnings, we focus on the Fed. We have to get the Fed behind us before we really pick a direction. I think that direction will be higher, but not until next Wednesday.
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People are bid up the market by the close to get ahead of the Fed on the hope of a 'Fed bounce' tomorrow (Tuesday), ... We're still well within the time frame of the Fed's monetary policy stimulating the economy, but people are just tired of waiting for it.