Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.
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Outlook statements for the first quarter are the best that we've seen in some time, but the question is, how much of that is already baked into the market?,
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I think the fourth quarter is going to be great, ... We just don't have signs of it yet.
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If the high levels of employment aren't kept up with the high levels of productivity gains that we have been making, (the Fed) will probably need to do something pro-active and that would probably mean 25 basis points now and then something in the first quarter of next year.
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The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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Investors are starting to discount the second quarter and price in growth in the fourth quarter,
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The fourth quarter is when we'll see the impact of rising interest rates, higher energy prices, ... I would say eBay is the biggest piece of the problem this morning. It's a household name and it's adding to the sentiment we're not going to have the best of fourth quarters.
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This was a nice way to start off the new year. A lot of this was driven by the fact that the Fed confirmed that end is in sight. We've held onto the belief that when the Fed ends that stock prices will go up. We'll still have rate hikes but the market is celebrating that we'll see an ending sooner than later.
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When you have a low volume Friday selloff, you'll sometimes see the bargain hunters come back in Monday.
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With declines three days in a row, you know it must be earnings season,
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We are starting to see (economic) stabilization and, I think the fact that the Fed didn't make a move speaks to that.
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The problem is that terrific news on inflation is not what we need right now, ... We need terrific news on the demand side of the economy. The economy hasn't stabilized yet so we don't have any great need to buy stocks.