Art Hogan
Art Hogan
acting coming companies creates deal determines drag earnings economy global great investor investors natural next oil price quarters reports start three
The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
aggressive came economic economy fed global longer months nine rate six starts swing
Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.
banking bankrupt business concerns confidence entire exposure global investment level rather remain space
With the financials, that entire space has been tarnished by a confidence crisis. Also, on a more fundamental level rather than a psychological level, there's no investment banking business going on right now. The concerns remain about the banks' exposure to bankrupt telecoms WorldCom and Global Crossing,
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The global reaction to this is more of a psychological response than a rational one. People wake up and read whatever wire service they're going to read and realize that one of the major Asian markets was down by up to 6 percent overnight, and there are a number of tech earnings disappointments and it tends to cascade. Eventually you get a more rational response after people have time to come to terms with what is really happening.
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I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.
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The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.
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Not to be heartless, but this is very good for Wall Street, ... And I think that is why we are seeing this market take off in the early going.
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The bad news is stuff that we know about -- it's Corporate America, especially on the technology front, letting us know they're not going to make their numbers and we knew that was going to happen,
gives trading
That gives us a lot of trading time, unfortunately.
confidence consumers continue created high interest lower money rates remain retail spending stayed stores
The retail stores are doing well. Consumers remain confident, continue to be out there spending their money, ... A lot of money was created with lower interest rates and refinancing -- things of that nature. So, consumer confidence has stayed very high and retail stores, that have actually done it right, have been doing pretty well.
Once again, it's not what you do, it's what you say,
add buy close decide delete fund happening run russell
Once a year, they (the Russell) decide to add and delete stocks. So what's happening is at the close today, those who run a Russell Fund will need to buy all of the Russell additions and sell all of the Russell deletes,
bets major people until waiting walking whatever
It's not a major deal, ... Whatever bets have been made most of the day (dried up) ? people are just walking away and waiting until tomorrow.