Art Hogan
Art Hogan
bad corporate front good news time
that we've got more good news than bad on the corporate front for the first time in a while.
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The bad news is stuff that we know about -- it's Corporate America, especially on the technology front, letting us know they're not going to make their numbers and we knew that was going to happen,
corporate hear hopefully negative positive terms
We're still in the pre-reporting season, so, we'll hear more warnings from corporate America, hopefully more positive than negative in terms of guidance.
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We're seeing better earnings news in corporate America. That's what the market is celebrating, ... We made major collateral damage to stocks in the last six weeks and over a larger 2-1/2-year period. What's happening now is that the market is bottoming out and is building a higher support base in the process.
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We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
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We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.
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You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.
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This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.
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The concern is about how much the economy picks up and how quickly that translates into earnings growth for corporate America.
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The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.
certainly expected happen last points thousand
We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
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We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
consensus helps overall quarter season second upbeat
The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.