Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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Fifty-two percent of the households in America are invested in the U.S. stock market and they want to invest in the things that had 70 percent growth last year, ... As long as the money keeps flowing into equity mutual funds and they are targeted toward Nasdaq stocks, we are going to see this go on for a while.
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It's another piece of the ongoing trend of a slowing economy, ... The credit tightening cycle is nearing an end and we have the equity markets celebrating that.
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They were less forceful in their rhetoric and that shows a little light at the end of the tunnel, ... Clearly they're at a point where what they say is more important than what they do and that's playing itself out in the equity markets.
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I think we're clearly in summer vacation mode, so we're going to have low volumes -- which has a strange effect on equity valuations and tends to exaggerate moves,
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I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.
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The equity market is a very forward pricing mechanism, ... I think what's going to happen to Microsoft happened over the past few weeks. The damage has been priced in.
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You can't have it both ways -- the economy can't be strong and have us worrying about revenue growth going forward, so it has to be the trend is slowing and how much that affects equity valuations going forward.
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We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
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We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
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The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
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The whole issue goes a long way in showing how dangerous an investment the sector is, ... You can have one regulatory setback, one clinical trial or negative development for a drug, and you see this kind of impact.
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The winnowing down of ideas is beginning to happen.
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These are terrific numbers, absolutely great, a much needed breath of fresh air for the equities market.