Art Hogan
Art Hogan
consensus helps overall quarter season second upbeat
The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
america argue consensus corporate couple credit cycle earnings fed focus forefront handful held hold last monetary nice policy returns revenue seeing strength terrific themes three
We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
basis cares consensus credible equity estimate fact fed five last march ourselves percentage points six talked trading tumultuous
I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.
concern fed higher leave meeting rates remains rhetoric thinking
I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.
biggest consumer dollar earnings effects fear ill strong versus warn weak
The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.
early good market seeing wall
Not to be heartless, but this is very good for Wall Street, ... And I think that is why we are seeing this market take off in the early going.
america bad corporate knew letting news numbers stuff technology
The bad news is stuff that we know about -- it's Corporate America, especially on the technology front, letting us know they're not going to make their numbers and we knew that was going to happen,
gives trading
That gives us a lot of trading time, unfortunately.
confidence consumers continue created high interest lower money rates remain retail spending stayed stores
The retail stores are doing well. Consumers remain confident, continue to be out there spending their money, ... A lot of money was created with lower interest rates and refinancing -- things of that nature. So, consumer confidence has stayed very high and retail stores, that have actually done it right, have been doing pretty well.
Once again, it's not what you do, it's what you say,
add buy close decide delete fund happening run russell
Once a year, they (the Russell) decide to add and delete stocks. So what's happening is at the close today, those who run a Russell Fund will need to buy all of the Russell additions and sell all of the Russell deletes,
bets major people until waiting walking whatever
It's not a major deal, ... Whatever bets have been made most of the day (dried up) ? people are just walking away and waiting until tomorrow.
above becomes fed happens hike market oil price pricing question rate rising stays
The Fed will take the rising price of oil into consideration when it meets, ... The market is still pricing in a rate hike at the end of June, but the question becomes what happens if oil stays above $42 a barrel.
considered fed good interest news rates rising
The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise. But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.