Art Hogan
Art Hogan
consensus helps overall quarter season second upbeat
The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
america argue consensus corporate couple credit cycle earnings fed focus forefront handful held hold last monetary nice policy returns revenue seeing strength terrific themes three
We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.
basis cares consensus credible equity estimate fact fed five last march ourselves percentage points six talked trading tumultuous
I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.
certainly expected happen last points thousand
We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
calling focus forward great growth intensive looking news people period question revenue robust week
We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
ahead calendar earnings fourth good lining looking major market people quarter range second third upsets
The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.
clinical dangerous goes investment issue negative sector showing trial
The whole issue goes a long way in showing how dangerous an investment the sector is, ... You can have one regulatory setback, one clinical trial or negative development for a drug, and you see this kind of impact.
beginning ideas
The winnowing down of ideas is beginning to happen.
absolutely air breath fresh needed terrific
These are terrific numbers, absolutely great, a much needed breath of fresh air for the equities market.
meeting rhetoric
The rhetoric from the meeting will be the most important catalyst,
death rumors
The rumors of the Dow's death has been much exaggerated,
news rallying
Arguably, Nokia's news isn't good, ... If we were rallying on Nokia, it was a little questionable on its reasoning.
bad bit economic fed market members news reporting sideways trading
During earnings, we're often in a trading range, and I think we still are right now. We've got 100 members of the S&P reporting this week, a lot of economic news and the Fed tomorrow, so for the market to go sideways a bit is not a bad thing.
aggressive closing direction door fed interest keeping keeps monetary sector softness sort terms watch
The revisions are in the right direction, but there's still some softness in the manufacturing sector which keeps the Fed on watch in terms of interest rates, ... It's sort of an 'in line' number, but not really closing the door to keeping the Fed aggressive with monetary policy.