Art Hogan
Art Hogan
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We've had a lot of bad news today -- the economic data, Cigna and the insurance sector is doing poorly, a bunch of companies missing estimates or warning -- but this is a market that really doesn't want to sell off,
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One of the main drivers for the Dow and S&P has been the price of oil; that's been dragging on the companies that are especially dependent on lower oil prices,
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
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It's a good day for the market, ... It's a great boon for the economy when you've got more than $70 billion in M&A activity (mergers and acquisitions), and these companies are making these moves because they think the economy is getting better.
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We're starting to see that companies are starting to admit that the second half is going to be slow, so that's a lingering fear,
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We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
companies earnings flight hanging people quality revenue tech value
In the earnings pre-reporting season, the companies that alarmed us so much were tech and telecom, ... We still have earnings jitters and nervousness about revenue growth. I think people feel there is more value in the Dow, which has been hanging in there, so that's where the flight to quality comes in.
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We're not getting a lot of companies that are doing cartwheels about the second half in terms of IT demand. In terms of where we stand, getting out of the second-quarter earnings reporting season, moving on with business as usual, is probably going to be a healthy thing.
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Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.
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The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.
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Not to be heartless, but this is very good for Wall Street, ... And I think that is why we are seeing this market take off in the early going.
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The bad news is stuff that we know about -- it's Corporate America, especially on the technology front, letting us know they're not going to make their numbers and we knew that was going to happen,