Art Hogan
Art Hogan
companies dependent dragging drivers lower main oil price
One of the main drivers for the Dow and S&P has been the price of oil; that's been dragging on the companies that are especially dependent on lower oil prices,
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We've had a lot of bad news today -- the economic data, Cigna and the insurance sector is doing poorly, a bunch of companies missing estimates or warning -- but this is a market that really doesn't want to sell off,
activity billion boon companies economy good great moves
It's a good day for the market, ... It's a great boon for the economy when you've got more than $70 billion in M&A activity (mergers and acquisitions), and these companies are making these moves because they think the economy is getting better.
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The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.
backing bit companies earnings energy handle high positive price season
We've been able to handle a lackluster earnings season so far. Energy companies haven't really come into the fray yet, so things may look a little better after they report. Another positive is that we're backing off a bit from the high price of oil.
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We're starting to see that companies are starting to admit that the second half is going to be slow, so that's a lingering fear,
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We're not getting a lot of companies that are doing cartwheels about the second half in terms of IT demand. In terms of where we stand, getting out of the second-quarter earnings reporting season, moving on with business as usual, is probably going to be a healthy thing.
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I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.
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Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.
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In the earnings pre-reporting season, the companies that alarmed us so much were tech and telecom, ... We still have earnings jitters and nervousness about revenue growth. I think people feel there is more value in the Dow, which has been hanging in there, so that's where the flight to quality comes in.
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We expected it to happen by the end of the year, certainly not in the first quarter. The last thousand points have really been at breakneck speed.
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We're going through a very news intensive period this week and the focus of all of that is slowdown of revenue growth going forward, but we're probably overreacting, ... We get great numbers, but looking forward we don't have the robust growth -- so people are calling into question valuations.
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The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.
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The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.