Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
claim demand falls file following found individual job labor outside period survey tells though
Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.
both driven due expected figures gains higher inflation large oil percent thursday
There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
businesses desirable economy harmful inflation overall perhaps pricing rate rise
While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.
barrel billion change consumer economy enormous gain impact influence oil per prices year
Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
buy care evidence food gas health inflation people personally products rate relate station trips
This is evidence of what many have said they've personally experienced, ... Many people can relate to the idea that the inflation rate has accelerated, when they take trips to gas station or buy food or health care -- so many products and services.
basis both cut discount fed percent points rate
The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.
further low market percent rate reason
The market has put a low probability on further rate cuts, and I think that is part of the reason why we can't get to 5 percent that readily.
depends loses maybe neighbor
What's the expression? 'If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression?' Maybe it depends on who's making the definition.
consumer mistake
It would be a mistake to get bearish on the consumer now. It's been a mistake to be bearish on the consumer for many years.
consumer mistake mistakes
It would be a mistake to get bearish on the consumer now, ... It's been a mistake to be bearish on the consumer for many years.
ended raised
It was very well subscribed -- and that was why they raised it and it ended up being $4.8 billion.
beginning bond calling since toward year yield
I've been calling for the bond yield since the beginning of the year to get toward 6 percent,
aversion beaten markets risk smaller touch
The risk aversion was a touch smaller today, but it was more of a toe-step into the markets that were beaten up badly.
difficult fed funds further higher lower market somewhat step trade
Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.