Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
barrel billion change consumer economy enormous gain impact influence oil per prices year
Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
basis both cut discount fed percent points rate
The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.
claim demand falls file following found individual job labor outside period survey tells though
Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.
buy care evidence food gas health inflation people personally products rate relate station trips
This is evidence of what many have said they've personally experienced, ... Many people can relate to the idea that the inflation rate has accelerated, when they take trips to gas station or buy food or health care -- so many products and services.
both driven due expected figures gains higher inflation large oil percent thursday
There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
businesses desirable economy harmful inflation overall perhaps pricing rate rise
While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.
further low market percent rate reason
The market has put a low probability on further rate cuts, and I think that is part of the reason why we can't get to 5 percent that readily.
bond expects fall hard market people stock trading
The bond market expects the stock market to fall very hard ... people are trading scared.
basis bonds gotten rally
The basis for a rally in bonds has gotten smaller.
except extent
not really much of a factor, except to the extent it's delaying the impeachment proceeding.
news
Again, another whipsaw day, ... What big news did we get today? ... Nothing.
additional causing create drop economy fed further higher hold interest pose raising rates remains risk stimulus vigor
The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.
create history problem solve
The Fed's history has been that they solve one problem but create another,
bet buying closer continue cut dearth fewer host larger meeting people point speculate
The Fed's about to cut rates, and they may cut more from a dearth of sellers than from a host of new buyers. Some people continue to make their bet on the possibility of a 50-basis point move. You see people buying to speculate on a larger cut...you're going to get closer to that meeting and you're going to find fewer sellers.