Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
both driven due expected figures gains higher inflation large oil percent thursday
There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
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While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.
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The recent rally in the stock market might be captured (in the numbers).
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There is a certain skepticism with regard to the rallies that we have seen in the stock market. We have yet to see the worst of the economic news.
build deflation demon fight including low might rates successful vanished
This time, they want to keep rates low to fight deflation -- a demon that may have vanished already. They might be successful again, but something else might build up, some other unintended consequence, including some inflation.
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When risk aversion is declining, money will flow out of the safe-haven Treasury market into riskier assets, ... High-yield bonds have increased in price in the past week; holders of junk bonds are doing well right now.
biggest inflation parts
Expectations are one of the biggest parts of the inflation process,
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Foreigners look down on the situation a lot more readily than do U.S. investors, ... people don't sense he will be removed from office.
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Foreigners are going to be selling stocks because of the Clinton matter, ... unless there is a flare that hits the dollar.
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It's time to trade out of investments whose success depends on a strong economy... for both stocks and corporate bonds.
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The numbers today allay any concern that the Fed may adopt a more aggressive stance on interest rates. The employment gains we've seen of late remain modest by historical standards.
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That makes it more likely we will need to have repeated hikes, because the economy won't succumb to a small handful of hikes.
barrel billion change consumer economy enormous gain impact influence oil per prices year
Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
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The bond market expects the stock market to fall very hard ... people are trading scared.