Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
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For so long, an individual who owned a small business or had influence over pricing somehow, would say, 'Prices aren't rising, so we can't raise prices, either.' Now they can see, with this data and through anecdotal evidence, that others are raising prices, and they may feel they can raise their prices now.
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Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
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There are hints now that the worst may be over in the labor story.
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There are growing indications the market is more stable,
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The PPI just feeds the deflation talk that's run rampant in the past month or so, ... It's upsetting for someone who believes deflation is on the way. Even though there are qualifiers for the April data, that headline is dramatic enough to convince them.
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There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
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While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.
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There is a certain skepticism with regard to the rallies that we have seen in the stock market. We have yet to see the worst of the economic news.
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This time, they want to keep rates low to fight deflation -- a demon that may have vanished already. They might be successful again, but something else might build up, some other unintended consequence, including some inflation.
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Even if the economy slows, there will still be inflation, ... But there comes a point when the Fed won't pay attention to inflation because of a slowing economy.
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Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.
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Expectations are one of the biggest parts of the inflation process,
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What's the expression? 'If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression?' Maybe it depends on who's making the definition.
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The recent rally in the stock market might be captured (in the numbers).