Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
additional causing create drop economy fed further higher hold interest pose raising rates remains risk stimulus vigor
The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.
businesses failed harmful higher industries money small taxed
The money channeled from failed industries to small businesses would be taxed at higher rates, and that would be harmful to the economy,
difficult fed funds further higher lower market somewhat step trade
Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.
context higher last released
In the context of the PPI released last week, which was much higher than expected, the CPI is a big relief,
both driven due expected figures gains higher inflation large oil percent thursday
There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
borrow capital companies condition corporate economy higher income less meaning past profits rarely seen sensitive spending year
The economy is less interest-rate sensitive than it was a year ago because of income growth, and we have corporate profits higher than capital spending -- a condition only seen rarely in the past 40 years -- meaning companies don't need to borrow as much,
barrel billion change consumer economy enormous gain impact influence oil per prices year
Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
bond expects fall hard market people stock trading
The bond market expects the stock market to fall very hard ... people are trading scared.
basis bonds gotten rally
The basis for a rally in bonds has gotten smaller.
except extent
not really much of a factor, except to the extent it's delaying the impeachment proceeding.
news
Again, another whipsaw day, ... What big news did we get today? ... Nothing.
basis both cut discount fed percent points rate
The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.
create history problem solve
The Fed's history has been that they solve one problem but create another,
bet buying closer continue cut dearth fewer host larger meeting people point speculate
The Fed's about to cut rates, and they may cut more from a dearth of sellers than from a host of new buyers. Some people continue to make their bet on the possibility of a 50-basis point move. You see people buying to speculate on a larger cut...you're going to get closer to that meeting and you're going to find fewer sellers.