Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
both driven due expected figures gains higher inflation large oil percent thursday
There are inflation figures due out Thursday and Friday. The CPI and the PPI both are expected at 0.5 percent (increase), which is a very large gain, but both of those gains are expected to be driven by higher oil prices.
additional causing create drop economy fed further higher hold interest pose raising rates remains risk stimulus vigor
The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.
context higher last released
In the context of the PPI released last week, which was much higher than expected, the CPI is a big relief,
difficult fed funds further higher lower market somewhat step trade
Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.
businesses failed harmful higher industries money small taxed
The money channeled from failed industries to small businesses would be taxed at higher rates, and that would be harmful to the economy,
borrow capital companies condition corporate economy higher income less meaning past profits rarely seen sensitive spending year
The economy is less interest-rate sensitive than it was a year ago because of income growth, and we have corporate profits higher than capital spending -- a condition only seen rarely in the past 40 years -- meaning companies don't need to borrow as much,
hints labor worst
There are hints now that the worst may be over in the labor story.
growing market
There are growing indications the market is more stable,
april believes convince deflation dramatic feeds headline month past rampant run talk though upsetting
The PPI just feeds the deflation talk that's run rampant in the past month or so, ... It's upsetting for someone who believes deflation is on the way. Even though there are qualifiers for the April data, that headline is dramatic enough to convince them.
businesses desirable economy harmful inflation overall perhaps pricing rate rise
While it's perhaps desirable for some businesses to have a little more pricing power, the overall rate of inflation could rise at a rate that's very harmful to the economy this year.
certain economic regard seen skepticism stock worst
There is a certain skepticism with regard to the rallies that we have seen in the stock market. We have yet to see the worst of the economic news.
build deflation demon fight including low might rates successful vanished
This time, they want to keep rates low to fight deflation -- a demon that may have vanished already. They might be successful again, but something else might build up, some other unintended consequence, including some inflation.
attention economy economy-and-economics fed inflation pay point slowing
Even if the economy slows, there will still be inflation, ... But there comes a point when the Fed won't pay attention to inflation because of a slowing economy.
claim demand falls file following found individual job labor outside period survey tells though
Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.