Anthony Crescenzi
Anthony Crescenzi
good markets panic
This is not a good way to intervene, to tell the markets ... What you want them to do is panic their way out of their positions.
businesses dynamic economic good nature rapidly showing
Businesses have responded rapidly to the economic climate, showing the dynamic nature of the U.S. economy, and it's very good for the long-term outlook.
boom cars creation effects expect good held indication items job majority payroll pick report slowing spending tax
The refinancing boom and effects from the tax rebates are waning, so spending on big-ticket items such as cars may be slowing down, ... But spending on services, which is where the majority of the job creation occurs, has held on, and we expect it to pick up. Friday's payroll report should be a good indication of that.
basis bottom dollar good line rally stable
Fundamentally there is not a good basis for the yen to rally today. But the bottom line is the dollar is more stable than we would have thought Friday.
confidence durable effect figure gets goods main orders rate street unlike
The jobless rate gets a lot of play on Main Street -- it's a figure that Main Street completely understands, unlike durable goods orders and things like that, ... It can have a big psychological effect on confidence and spending.
cause chinese credible equity fear good inflation social
The Chinese devaluation would be devastating to the equity markets, and it would be good for bonds, ... But that is not a credible fear right now. The inflation that would come from devaluation would cause social instability.
barrel billion change consumer economy enormous gain impact influence oil per prices year
Each one-dollar change in oil prices has a $7 billion per year impact on consumer spending. So the gain in oil prices recently, from $25 a barrel to $37, is an enormous influence on the economy -- $84 billion, in other words.
bond expects fall hard market people stock trading
The bond market expects the stock market to fall very hard ... people are trading scared.
basis bonds gotten rally
The basis for a rally in bonds has gotten smaller.
except extent
not really much of a factor, except to the extent it's delaying the impeachment proceeding.
news
Again, another whipsaw day, ... What big news did we get today? ... Nothing.
basis both cut discount fed percent points rate
The Fed will probably cut the both the Fed-Funds rate and the discount rate by 25 basis points tomorrow, to 5.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.
additional causing create drop economy fed further higher hold interest pose raising rates remains risk stimulus vigor
The Fed will look at a cross-section of data, which still show that enough vigor in the economy remains to pose a risk for higher inflation, ... If the Fed were to hold off on raising rates on Tuesday, they would create additional stimulus for the economy by causing a further drop in other interest rates.
create history problem solve
The Fed's history has been that they solve one problem but create another,