Alan Kral
Alan Kral
fed market peace sensitive stocks time until
Probably there won't be any peace until after the Fed has spoken. This is a very sensitive time in the market and you'd better be comfortable with the stocks you own.
basis change fed impact order people points quarter respond
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do.
fed past rally relief weeks
We think the rally in Nasdaq over the past two weeks is really a relief rally. The relief is they don't think the Fed has to go any further.
economy fed rest says waiting
Everyone is waiting to see if the Fed does anything, and if it doesn't, what it says about the economy over the rest of the year.
acts bring earnings economy extra fed finally growth hurt recently risk situation slow stocks strong
The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.
economy fed looking mean natural numbers past report slower
Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response.
bond couple dropped economy fed gone hanging hopes job price quarter second slightly slower tail yields
I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate.
along basically bear bounce fed market question saw seen sharp trend yesterday
I think what we saw yesterday (Tuesday) was a bounce in the bear market. It could continue. There's no question there are going to be sharp rallies all the way along in here. But I think the trend has been as long as the Fed has been active, we've basically seen a down market with some rallies in it.
clear fed raise rates reasonably stocks
The Fed made it reasonably clear they will raise rates again. The Fed is impacting the Dow stocks and not impacting the Nasdaq stocks.
changed couple economic economy information last regard totally weeks
The whole last couple of weeks with the economic information that has come out has totally changed people's expectations with regard to the economy going forward.
coming continue good line numbers straight volatility
We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.
adding bad bias flowing gets money news underlying until upside
The AT&T thing gets some money flowing around into the mergers-and- acquisitions end of the business, which is adding some froth. The underlying bias is on the upside until bad news comes out, and I don't think the bad news is over.
alan chairman disappoint means range reflected seeing swing today
What you're seeing today is that swing back and forth. There's always a range of expectations, which means he'll (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) always disappoint somebody, and a lot of that disappointment was reflected yesterday.
based consumer economy leg risk
But the real risk that we have to see with the economy is -- does it take another leg down based upon consumer spending?