Alan Kral
Alan Kral
coming couple financial fourth involved last leading looked morgan quarter retail stock
Two that need to be looked at are J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. J.P. Morgan because they have been heavily involved internationally over the last couple of years, and Merrill Lynch is the leading retail financial brokerage stock in the country. How they did coming out of the fourth quarter is very important.
bond couple dropped economy fed gone hanging hopes job price quarter second slightly slower tail yields
I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate.
basis change fed impact order people points quarter respond
I think people are just not going to respond to what the Fed does if it's only 25 basis points (a quarter point). In order to have any kind of impact he has to change people's actions, he has to change what people do.
economy fed rest says waiting
Everyone is waiting to see if the Fed does anything, and if it doesn't, what it says about the economy over the rest of the year.
clear fed raise rates reasonably stocks
The Fed made it reasonably clear they will raise rates again. The Fed is impacting the Dow stocks and not impacting the Nasdaq stocks.
anticipate defense past people quite run sector seeing start war
The defense sector has had quite a run over the past 18 months. As people start to anticipate a war scenario, we're seeing a little froth in these stocks.
changed couple economic economy information last regard totally weeks
The whole last couple of weeks with the economic information that has come out has totally changed people's expectations with regard to the economy going forward.
acts bring earnings economy extra fed finally growth hurt recently risk situation slow stocks strong
The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.
economy fed looking mean natural numbers past report slower
Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response.
fed market peace sensitive stocks time until
Probably there won't be any peace until after the Fed has spoken. This is a very sensitive time in the market and you'd better be comfortable with the stocks you own.
based consumer economy leg risk
But the real risk that we have to see with the economy is -- does it take another leg down based upon consumer spending?
demand environment prices returned
Now that the baseline of demand has returned and (oil) prices returned to around $20 to $21 a barrel, the environment is such that there will be a return to exploration, and Schlumberger will be a big beneficiary.
absent bad hope market money wants
Absent bad news, the market wants to go up. There's a lot of money around and a lot of hope around.
ability awful both buyers hard insurance markets money risks soft terms themselves
They're heavily into the insurance business, but in a very interesting way, in terms of an arbitrage between the buyers and sellers. They don't take an awful lot of insurance risks for themselves and they've been able to demonstrate the ability to make money in both soft markets and hard markets for insurance premiums.