Alan Kral
Alan Kral
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I think the Fed is hanging its hopes on a couple of things. The bond price has dropped and yields have gone up and it is doing the job for them. . . the economy as a whole is slightly slower in the second quarter than it was in the first. There's hope that it will tail off to a more sustainable rate.
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What you're seeing today is that swing back and forth. There's always a range of expectations, which means he'll (Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) always disappoint somebody, and a lot of that disappointment was reflected yesterday.
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We'll continue to see volatility for two reasons. First, there's no straight line of good numbers continuously coming out of the economy.
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The Fed made it reasonably clear they will raise rates again. The Fed is impacting the Dow stocks and not impacting the Nasdaq stocks.
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Cisco reports tomorrow (Tuesday) and Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks.
confident gains good gorilla group half number ought people reasonably technology tone
Cisco is the 800-pound gorilla of technology nowadays. People are reasonably confident that it ought to be a pretty good number and that has set the tone for the tech group as a whole. More than half of the Dow's gains are in technology stocks.
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We pick those two for their exposure to the domestic market. We think the recovery in Asia is lifting demand and has re-established a floor under oil prices, and we don't expect prices to drop any time in the near term.
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The big risk with the stocks that have done well recently is that the economy is so strong that it can't continue, and when it slows down, that will hurt earnings. Secondly, when the Fed finally acts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, it will be a double-whammy to earnings - and it will be an extra big whammy to those stocks that have been in the situation where they really need strong earnings growth going forward.
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The whole last couple of weeks with the economic information that has come out has totally changed people's expectations with regard to the economy going forward.
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They're heavily into the insurance business, but in a very interesting way, in terms of an arbitrage between the buyers and sellers. They don't take an awful lot of insurance risks for themselves and they've been able to demonstrate the ability to make money in both soft markets and hard markets for insurance premiums.
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Everyone is waiting to see if the Fed does anything, and if it doesn't, what it says about the economy over the rest of the year.
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Absent bad news, the market wants to go up. There's a lot of money around and a lot of hope around.
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Probably there won't be any peace until after the Fed has spoken. This is a very sensitive time in the market and you'd better be comfortable with the stocks you own.
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Once we get past the CPI, we'll be right into Fed watch. Just because the numbers report a slower economy doesn't' mean that we're looking at anything more than the natural seasonal response.