William Gray
William Gray
American attorney who served as a federal judge. He was appointed to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California in 1966.
ProfessionLawyer
Date of Birth26 March 1912
august hurricane last major number since six somewhat strikes terms though three versus
Even though the U.S. has experienced six major hurricane strikes since August 2004, in terms of the number of U.S. major hurricane strikes during the last 11 years (nine of 43, versus one of three for the century-long average) we have been, from this perspective, somewhat fortunate,
above average call known last season
There's no way we could have known this season would be that active. We did call it right. We did go above average last year.
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There have been a heck of a lot of storms in the Caribbean in the last 11 years. You've dodged a bunch of them. In any one year the probability of a major storm striking the Virgin Islands is low, but you'll at least be watching more storms pass to the north and south of you than in the down period from 1970 to 1994.
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Small sea-surface temperature changes, there's no theory why they should make for more storms. Observations verify that. When we look back in a global point of view, in the last thirty years, there hasn't been a pick up in storms.
andrew hit hurricane last major storm
The last major storm to come through Florida, before Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992, was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which went through the Keys.
activity expect hurricane season time tropical witness
We expect that by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near-record levels.
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The United States has been very lucky over the past three decades in witnessing very few major hurricanes making landfall in Florida and along the East Coast,
both devices
Both of these devices are promising. The kicker is long-term durability,
active activity atlantic coming continue current events expect hurricane major number period seasons seen though unlikely
Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15-20 years, it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006 and 2007 hurricane season, or the seasons which follow, will have the number of major hurricane U.S. landfall events as we have seen in 2004-2005.
allow continue forecast improve ongoing research
We feel our ongoing forecast research will allow us to continue to improve our predictive skill.
current moves ocean tends
This ocean circulation, a northbound current that sinks and then moves southbound, tends to go through multi-decadal changes,
active expect nearly season
We expect a season nearly as active as this year's (1998),
expect land major states united
We do not expect to see as many land-falling major hurricanes in the United States as we have experienced in 2004 and 2005.
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We have always believed that the atmosphere will act in the future as it has in the past. This assumption can fail in some years but when applied over a period of several years we find that the atmosphere and ocean does indeed have a long period memory in most years.