Timothy Ghriskey
Timothy Ghriskey
fed levels point wind
We do have the wind of the Fed at our back. At some point this downturn we're in levels out.
belief benign closer data fed helped inflation market
The benign inflation data and the belief that the Fed may be closer to the end than had previously been thought has helped the market this week.
although fear federal forward inflation might months next numbers people reserve week worrying
The fear that's out there is forward looking, with people worrying about inflation and what the Federal Reserve might do in the months ahead. So the numbers next week won't help, although we do get a lot of earnings, which is good.
economy far fed grind inflation investment raise saying slow worry
They are saying the economy is going to slow and that there's no inflation but that we still need to raise rates. Investment professionals worry that the Fed will go too far and grind the economy into a recession.
aggressive alan basis fed greenspan happen knows market needs points prepare raising rates start talk
The talk is that the Fed is going to be getting more aggressive soon, and may start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. It's not going to happen this time, because (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan knows he needs to prepare the market for this in advance.
continues fed goes inflation influence oil
Oil continues to be a big influence on the market, and the Fed is as well. As inflation goes, so goes the Fed.
becoming comments dropped fed hikes language late maybe pointing rate speeches word
But the language in the Fed comments and in Greenspan's speeches of late has been pointing to rate hikes becoming more aggressive, ... The word 'measured' is going to be dropped soon, maybe at this meeting, maybe at the next.
august bit certainly direction fed influence market meeting summer time vacation
I think the August Fed meeting is a big overhang. And certainly the direction from that meeting will influence where the market goes. We could get into a bit of a summer doldrums here with August looming, from vacation time and all of that,
bit earnings economy higher improving justify lifted markets mood positive proof stock summer translated
We're into a bit of the summer doldrums. There have been a lot of positive earnings surprises, but the anticipation of that has lifted markets for months, with little proof that the economy is improving enough to justify those earnings. So the mood is more upbeat, but that hasn't translated to higher stock prices.
seeing
We're seeing a pullback really just from yesterday.
high hit remember seeing selling
We're seeing a little selling today, but I think it's important to remember that we just hit an 18-month high on the Dow, and so we're going to see a little pullback short-term.
early focused holiday january reports season
What we'll be focused on in early January will be more reports on how the holiday season went for retailers.
building calendars certainly clear coming fact favor highly historic market related seen since somewhat stock styles technology valued volatile wrong
We've seen a very volatile stock market since February. Different styles and sectors, like technology or financials, coming in and out of favor with no clear direction. There's nothing really wrong with techs. They are certainly somewhat highly valued by any historic measure, but probably not as highly valued as they were in February. We think, actually, come the fall, we could see a big tech rally, and that would probably be related to the fact that the IPO calendars are really building at the big underwriting firms, the big broker dealers.
beyond bond both initial issues morning number rally range remain stock stuck until
The CPI number this morning sparked a rally in both stock and bond markets. But beyond the initial reaction, I think we're going to remain stuck in this range until other issues get resolved.